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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still