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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.