A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
